|
|
TABLE
OF CONTENTS
|
Introduction
|
3
|
Shareholder
Letter
|
4
|
Quarterly
Overview
|
6
|
Financial
Insights
|
12
|
u
Book Value
|
12
|
u
Balance Sheet
|
14
|
u
GAAP Income
|
18
|
u
Taxable Income and Dividends
|
22
|
u
Cash Flow
|
23
|
New
Securitization Initiative
|
26
|
Residential
Real Estate Securities
|
32
|
Commercial
Real Estate
|
39
|
Investments
in Securitization Entities
|
42
|
Appendix
|
|
Accounting
Discussion
|
46
|
Glossary
|
47
|
Financial
Tables
|
53
|
THE REDWOOD
REVIEW 1ST QUARTER 2010
|
1
|
|
|
CAUTIONARY
STATEMENT
|
2
|
THE REDWOOD
REVIEW 1ST QUARTER 2010
|
|
|
INTRODUCTION
|
Selected
Financial Highlights
|
||||||
Quarter:Year
|
GAAP
Income (Loss) per
Share
|
Taxable
Income (Loss) per
Share(1)
|
Annualized
Return
on
Equity
|
GAAP
Book
Value
per
Share
|
Non-GAAP
Economic
Value
per
Share (2)
|
Total
Dividends
per Share
|
Q108
|
($5.28)
|
$0.79
|
(95%)
|
$17.89
|
$18.04
|
$0.75
|
Q208
|
($1.40)
|
$0.11
|
(30%)
|
$17.00
|
$16.72
|
$0.75
|
Q308
|
($3.34)
|
$0.07
|
(83%)
|
$12.40
|
$13.18
|
$0.75
|
Q408
|
($3.46)
|
($0.39)
|
(124%)
|
$9.02
|
$11.10
|
$0.75
|
Q109
|
($0.65)
|
($0.22)
|
(25%)
|
$8.40
|
$10.01
|
$0.25
|
Q209
|
$0.10
|
($0.16)
|
5%
|
$10.35
|
$11.30
|
$0.25
|
Q309
|
$0.34
|
($0.30)
|
13%
|
$11.68
|
$12.28
|
$0.25
|
Q409
|
$0.51
|
($0.44)
|
17%
|
$12.50
|
$13.03
|
$0.25
|
Q110
|
$0.58
|
$0.01
|
19%
|
$12.84
|
$13.32
|
$0.25
|
(1) Taxable
income (loss) per share for 2009 and 2010 are estimates until we file our
tax returns.
|
||||||
(2) Non-GAAP
economic value per share is calculated using estimated bid-side values
(which take into account available bid-side marks) for our financial
assets and estimated offer-side values (which take into account available
offer-side marks) for our financial liabilities and we believe it more
accurately reflects liquidation value than does GAAP book value per
share. Non-GAAP economic value per share is reconciled to GAAP
book value per share in Table 4 in the Financial Tables in this
Review.
|
THE REDWOOD
REVIEW 1ST QUARTER 2010
|
3
|
|
|
SHAREHOLDER
LETTER
|
4
|
THE REDWOOD
REVIEW 1ST QUARTER 2010
|
|
|
SHAREHOLDER
LETTER
|
* Assumes dividends were
invested
Source:
Bloomberg
|
THE REDWOOD
REVIEW 1ST QUARTER 2010
|
5
|
|
|
QUARTERLY
OVERVIEW
|
6
|
THE REDWOOD
REVIEW 1ST QUARTER 2010
|
|
|
QUARTERLY
OVERVIEW
|
THE REDWOOD
REVIEW 1ST QUARTER 2010
|
7
|
|
|
QUARTERLY
OVERVIEW
|
8
|
THE REDWOOD
REVIEW 1ST QUARTER 2010
|
|
|
QUARTERLY
OVERVIEW
|
THE REDWOOD
REVIEW 1ST QUARTER 2010
|
9
|
|
|
QUARTERLY
OVERVIEW
|
10
|
THE REDWOOD
REVIEW 1ST QUARTER 2010
|
|
|
QUARTERLY
OVERVIEW
|
Martin S.
Hughes
|
Brett D.
Nicholas
|
President
and Co-Chief Operating Officer
|
Chief
Investment Officer and
|
Co-Chief
Operating Officer
|
THE REDWOOD
REVIEW 1ST QUARTER 2010
|
11
|
|
|
FINANCIAL
INSIGHTS
|
u
|
The following
table shows the components of our GAAP Book Value and Management’s
Estimate of Non-GAAP Economic Value at March 31,
2010.
|
Components
of Book Value*
|
|||||||||
March
31, 2010
|
|||||||||
($
in millions, except per share data)
|
|||||||||
Management's
|
|||||||||
Estimate
of
|
|||||||||
GAAP
|
Non-GAAP
|
||||||||
Book
Value
|
Adj.
|
Economic
Value
|
|||||||
Cash and cash
equivalents
|
$
|
242
|
|
$
|
242
|
||||
Real estate
securities at Redwood
|
|||||||||
Residential
|
830
|
830
|
|||||||
Commercial
|
9
|
9
|
|||||||
CDO
|
1
|
1
|
|||||||
Total real
estate securities at Redwood
|
$
|
840
|
$
|
840
|
|||||
Investments
in the Fund
|
16
|
16
|
|||||||
Investments
in Sequoia
|
77
|
(29)
|
48
|
||||||
Investments
in Acacia
|
1
|
1
|
|||||||
Total cash,
securities, and investments
|
$
|
1,176
|
$
|
1,147
|
|||||
|
|||||||||
Long-term
debt
|
(140)
|
67
|
(73)
|
||||||
|
|||||||||
Other
assets/liabilities, net
|
(38)
|
(38)
|
|||||||
Stockholders'
equity
|
$
|
998
|
$
|
1,036
|
|||||
Book
value per share
|
$
|
12.84
|
$
|
13.32
|
u
|
During the
first quarter our GAAP book value increased by $0.34 per share to $12.84
per share. The change resulted from an aggregate of $0.59 per share from
earnings and market value increases on investments during the quarter,
partially offset by $0.25 per share of dividends paid to
shareholders.
|
u
|
During the
first quarter our estimate of non-GAAP economic value increased by $0.29
per share to $13.32 per share. The increase resulted from $0.76 per share
from net cash flows and net positive market valuation adjustments on our
securities and investments, less $0.22 per share of cash operating and
interest expense and $0.25 per share of
dividends.
|
12
|
THE REDWOOD
REVIEW 1ST QUARTER 2010
|
|
|
FINANCIAL
INSIGHTS
|
u
|
In the chart
below we present our March 31, 2010 securities portfolio by acquisition
period, which highlights that 93% of the economic value of cash,
securities, and investments were held in cash or in securities acquired
since the beginning of 2008. Our future earnings will be driven primarily
by the performance of these recent investments along with how we deploy
our existing cash and future cash
flow.
|
u
|
During April
2010, we purchased $5 million of residential securities and sold $94
million of residential securities. These sales of securities were executed
at prices generally in excess of their fair values at the end of the first
quarter. As part of the management of our portfolio, we sell securities
when we believe conditions merit.
|
THE REDWOOD
REVIEW 1ST QUARTER 2010
|
13
|
|
|
FINANCIAL
INSIGHTS
|
u
|
The following
table shows the components of our balance sheet at March 31,
2010.
|
Consolidating
Balance Sheet
|
|||||||||||||||||||||
March
31, 2010
|
|||||||||||||||||||||
($
in millions)
|
Redwood
|
The
Fund
|
Securitization
Entities
|
Intercompany
|
Redwood
Consolidated
|
||||||||||||||||
Real estate
loans
|
$ | 2 | $ | - | $ | 3,660 | $ | - | $ | 3,662 | ||||||||||
Real estate
securities
|
840 | 27 | 269 | - | 1,136 | |||||||||||||||
Investments
in the Fund
|
16 | - | - | (16 | ) | - | ||||||||||||||
Investment in
securitization entities
|
78 | - | - | (78 | ) | - | ||||||||||||||
Other
investments
|
- | - | 11 | - | 11 | |||||||||||||||
Cash and cash
equivalents
|
242 | - | - | - | 242 | |||||||||||||||
Total earning
assets
|
1,178 | 27 | 3,940 | (94 | ) | 5,051 | ||||||||||||||
Other
assets
|
23 | 3 | 118 | - | 144 | |||||||||||||||
Total
assets
|
$ | 1,201 | $ | 30 | $ | 4,058 | $ | (94 | ) | $ | 5,195 | |||||||||
Short-term
debt
|
$ | - | $ | - | $ | - | $ | - | $ | - | ||||||||||
Other
liabilities
|
63 | 1 | 143 | - | 207 | |||||||||||||||
Asset-backed
securities issued
|
- | - | 3,837 | - | 3,837 | |||||||||||||||
Long-term
debt
|
140 | - | - | - | 140 | |||||||||||||||
Total
liabilities
|
203 | 1 | 3,980 | - | 4,184 | |||||||||||||||
Stockholders’
equity
|
998 | 16 | 78 | (94 | ) | 998 | ||||||||||||||
Noncontrolling
interest
|
- | 13 | - | - | 13 | |||||||||||||||
Total equity
|
998 | 29 | 78 | (94 | ) | 1,011 | ||||||||||||||
Total
liabilities and stockholders’ equity
|
$ | 1,201 | $ | 30 | $ | 4,058 | $ | (94 | ) | $ | 5,195 |
u
|
We are
required under GAAP to consolidate all of the assets, liabilities, and
noncontrolling interest of the Fund due to our significant general and
limited partnership interests in the Fund and ongoing asset management
responsibilities.
|
u
|
We are
required to consolidate the assets and liabilities of certain Sequoia and
Acacia securitization entities that are treated as secured borrowing
transactions under GAAP. However, the securitized assets of these entities
are not available to Redwood. Similarly, the liabilities of these entities
are obligations payable only from the cash flow generated by their
securitized assets and are not obligations of
Redwood.
|
14
|
THE REDWOOD
REVIEW 1ST QUARTER 2010
|
|
|
FINANCIAL
INSIGHTS
|
u
|
The following
table presents the fair value of real estate securities at Redwood at
March 31, 2010. We segment our securities portfolio by vintage (the
year(s) the securities were issued), priority of cash flow (senior,
re-REMIC, and subordinate) and, for residential securities, by quality of
underlying loans (prime and
non-prime).
|
Real
Estate Securities at Redwood
|
||||||||||||||||||||
March
31, 2010
|
||||||||||||||||||||
($
in millions)
|
||||||||||||||||||||
%
of Total
|
||||||||||||||||||||
<=2004
|
2005
|
2006-2008
|
Total
|
Securities
|
||||||||||||||||
Residential
|
||||||||||||||||||||
Seniors
|
||||||||||||||||||||
Prime
|
$ | 14 | $ | 286 | $ | 72 | $ | 372 | 44 | % | ||||||||||
Non-prime
|
117 | 232 | 19 | 368 | 44 | % | ||||||||||||||
Total
Seniors
|
$ | 131 | $ | 518 | $ | 91 | $ | 740 | 88 | % | ||||||||||
Re-REMIC
|
||||||||||||||||||||
Prime
|
$ | 5 | $ | 8 | $ | 54 | $ | 67 | 8 | % | ||||||||||
Total
Re-REMIC
|
$ | 5 | $ | 8 | $ | 54 | $ | 67 | 8 | % | ||||||||||
Subordinates
|
||||||||||||||||||||
Prime
|
$ | 12 | $ | 3 | $ | 2 | $ | 17 | 2 | % | ||||||||||
Non-prime
|
6 | - | - | 6 | 1 | % | ||||||||||||||
Total
Subordinates
|
$ | 18 | $ | 3 | $ | 2 | $ | 23 | 3 | % | ||||||||||
Total
Residential
|
$ | 154 | $ | 529 | $ | 147 | $ | 830 | 99 | % | ||||||||||
Commercial
Subordinates
|
$ | 7 | $ | 2 | $ | - | $ | 9 | 1 | % | ||||||||||
CDO
Subordinates
|
$ | - | $ | 1 | $ | - | $ | 1 | 0 | % | ||||||||||
Total
|
$ | 161 | $ | 532 | $ | 147 | $ | 840 | 100 | % |
u
|
During the
first quarter, our securities portfolio grew to $840 million from $781
million, primarily as a result of acquisitions of $180 million (excluding
the acquisition of $9 million of Sequoia asset-backed debt) exceeding
sales and paydowns. In addition, the value of securities held during the
first quarter increased by $15 million during the
period.
|
THE REDWOOD
REVIEW 1ST QUARTER 2010
|
15
|
|
|
FINANCIAL
INSIGHTS
|
u
|
Our
investments in the Fund and Sequoia and Acacia securitization entities, as
reported under GAAP, totaled $94 million, or 8% of our cash, securities,
and investments at March 31, 2010.
|
u
|
The fair
value (which equals GAAP carrying value) of our investment in the Fund was
$16 million. The Fund is primarily invested in non-prime residential
securities and is managed by a subsidiary of Redwood. Our investment
represents a 52% interest in the
Fund.
|
u
|
Our
investments in Sequoia entities consist predominately of interest-only
securities (IOs) and, to a smaller extent, senior and subordinate
securities issued by these entities. The $77 million of GAAP carrying
value of our investments represents the difference between the carrying
costs of the assets and liabilities owned by the Sequoia entities. In
contrast, we estimated the $48 million of non-GAAP economic value for our
investments in Sequoia entities using the same valuation process that we
follow to fair value our other real estate
securities.
|
u
|
The GAAP
carrying value and the fair value of our investments in Acacia entities
was $1 million, which primarily reflects the present value of the
management fees we expect to earn from these entities. The equity
interests and securities we own in the Acacia entities have minimal
value.
|
u
|
We had no
short-term recourse debt at March 31, 2010. We currently fund our
investments with permanent capital (equity and long-term debt) that is not
subject to margin calls or financial
covenants.
|
u
|
In future
periods, we expect to utilize short-term debt to finance the acquisition
of prime mortgage loans prior to securitizing those loans through our
Sequoia program. We are in discussion with counterparties to re-establish
warehouse credit facilities for this purpose. In the interim, we are
likely to use our excess cash to purchase mortgage loans. We are also
considering utilizing repurchase facilities, collateralized by certain of
our existing senior residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS), to
temporarily finance our mortgage loan
acquisitions.
|
u
|
At March 31,
2010, we had $140 million of long-term debt outstanding, which, as a
result of interest rate hedging had an effective fixed interest rate of
6.75%, net of interest rate swap expense. For GAAP purposes, this
long-term debt, which is due in 2037, is reported at its outstanding
principal amount. We estimated the $73 million non-GAAP economic value of
this debt using the same valuation process that we follow to fair value
our other financial assets and liabilities. Economic value is difficult to
estimate with precision as the market for this debt is largely
inactive.
|
16
|
THE REDWOOD
REVIEW 1ST QUARTER 2010
|
|
|
FINANCIAL
INSIGHTS
|
u
|
At March 31,
2010, our total capital equaled $1.1 billion, including $998 million in
shareholders’ equity and $140 million of long-term debt. This represented
a $26 million increase from total capital at December 31,
2009.
|
u
|
At March 31,
2010, our cash totaled $242 million and our excess capital was $181
million. At April 30, 2010, our cash totaled $275 million and our excess
capital was $233 million.
|
u
|
While it is
painful to consider the opportunity cost of holding so much cash, we
believe our patience will serve Redwood investors well. Besides, many
argue that holding excess cash in a dangerous and uncertain world is not a
bad problem to have. Rather than reach for marginal investment
opportunities, we prefer to hold capital for sizeable investment
opportunities we anticipate in our core credit enhancement business within
a number of quarters. We note that when financial companies cave to
pressure and put money to work in ways that do not support their base
franchise, it often does not end well. We prefer investments that end
well.
|
u
|
We use our
capital to invest in earning assets, meet lender capital requirements, and
to fund our operations and working capital needs. The difference between
our current cash balance and excess capital is primarily unsettled trades
and the amount of capital set aside for our outstanding hedging
agreements. We allocate capital to our investments under our risk-adjusted
capital guidelines based on numerous factors including the liquidity of
the assets and the availability of
financing.
|
u
|
We currently
allocate capital equal to 100% of the fair value of all our investments —
meaning we fund these assets with capital. Over the past several years, we
have been well served by our lack of short-term borrowings. While our
asset values were adversely impacted by market conditions during 2008 and
2009, we were not forced to unload assets at fire-sale prices. Our
memories will be long on this topic and we will be thoughtful about
managing funding risk as we put our toe back into the short-term borrowing
water.
|
u
|
As we return
to creating attractive investment opportunities through our Sequoia
program we will increase our short-term borrowings in order to fund the
loans we accumulate prior to securitizations. We are looking to enter into
loan warehouse facilities and to borrow against our senior securities to
provide additional funding sources for our
acquisitions.
|
u
|
In addition,
we may change the amount of capital we allocate to the more liquid
securities we own. Consistent with our past practices, we will make these
changes only when we believe it is in the best long-term interest of our
shareholders. We believe we have significantly greater capital capacity
than reflected in our stated excess capital amounts, given our
conservative choice to allocate 100% capital to all our assets. Given our
capacity, we would likely look to our own balance sheet for sources of
liquidity before looking externally and are unlikely to seek additional
capital in the near
term.
|
THE REDWOOD
REVIEW 1ST QUARTER 2010
|
17
|
|
|
FINANCIAL
INSIGHTS
|
u
|
The following
table provides a summary of our GAAP income for the first quarter of 2010
and the fourth quarter of 2009.
|
GAAP
Income
|
||||||||
($
in millions, except per share data)
|
||||||||
Three
Months Ended
|
||||||||
3/31/2010
|
12/31/2009
|
|||||||
Interest
income
|
$ | 58 | $ | 62 | ||||
Interest
expense
|
(18 | ) | (21 | ) | ||||
Net interest
income
|
40 | 41 | ||||||
Provision for
loan losses
|
(9 | ) | (9 | ) | ||||
Market
valuation adjustments, net
|
(11 | ) | (4 | ) | ||||
Net interest
income (loss) after provision and market valuation
adjustments
|
20 | 28 | ||||||
Operating
expenses
|
(17 | ) | (11 | ) | ||||
Realized
gains, net
|
44 | 20 | ||||||
Noncontrolling
interest
|
- | - | ||||||
Benefit from
(provision for) income taxes
|
- | 3 | ||||||
GAAP
income
|
$ | 47 | $ | 40 | ||||
GAAP
income per share
|
$ | 0.58 | $ | 0.51 |
u
|
Our reported
GAAP income for the first quarter of 2010 was $47 million, or $0.58 per
share, as compared to $40 million, or $0.51 per share, for the fourth
quarter of 2009. Our increase in earnings reflects the continued strong
performance of our senior securities portfolio at Redwood and higher
realized gains on the sale of securities, partially offset by lower net
returns on the assets and liabilities at Acacia and non-recurring
operating expense.
|
18
|
THE REDWOOD
REVIEW 1ST QUARTER 2010
|
|
|
FINANCIAL
INSIGHTS
|
u
|
The following
tables show the effect that Redwood, the Fund, and the Sequoia and Acacia
securitization entities had on our consolidated GAAP income for the first
quarter of 2010 and the fourth quarter of 2009. These components of our
income statement are not separate business
segments.
|
Consolidating
Income Statement
|
||||||||||||||||||||
Three
Months Ended March 31, 2010
|
||||||||||||||||||||
($
in millions)
|
||||||||||||||||||||
Redwood
|
The
Fund
|
Securitization
Entities
|
Intercompany
Adjustments
|
Redwood
Consolidated
|
||||||||||||||||
Interest
income
|
$ | 18 | $ | 1 | $ | 31 | $ | - | $ | 50 | ||||||||||
Net discount
(premium) amortization
|
9 | 1 | (2 | ) | - | 8 | ||||||||||||||
Total
interest income
|
27 | 2 | 29 | - | 58 | |||||||||||||||
Management
fees
|
1 | - | - | (1 | ) | - | ||||||||||||||
Interest
expense
|
(1 | ) | - | (17 | ) | - | (18 | ) | ||||||||||||
Net interest
income
|
27 | 2 | 12 | (1 | ) | 40 | ||||||||||||||
Provision for
loan losses
|
- | - | (9 | ) | - | (9 | ) | |||||||||||||
Market
valuation adjustments, net
|
(3 | ) | - | (8 | ) | - | (11 | ) | ||||||||||||
Net interest
income after provision and market valuation adjustments
|
24 | 2 | (5 | ) | (1 | ) | 20 | |||||||||||||
Operating
expenses
|
(17 | ) | (1 | ) | - | 1 | (17 | ) | ||||||||||||
Realized
gains (losses), net
|
38 | (1 | ) | 7 | - | 44 | ||||||||||||||
Income from
the Fund
|
- | - | - | - | - | |||||||||||||||
Income from
Securitization Entities
|
2 | - | - | (2 | ) | - | ||||||||||||||
Noncontrolling
interest
|
- | - | - | - | - | |||||||||||||||
Benefit from
income taxes
|
- | - | - | - | - | |||||||||||||||
Net
income
|
$ | 47 | $ | - | $ | 2 | $ | (2 | ) | $ | 47 |
Consolidating
Income Statement
|
||||||||||||||||||||
Three
Months Ended December 31, 2009
|
||||||||||||||||||||
($
in millions)
|
||||||||||||||||||||
Redwood
|
The
Fund
|
Securitization
Entities
|
Intercompany
Adjustments
|
Redwood
Consolidated
|
||||||||||||||||
Interest
income
|
$ | 19 | $ | 1 | $ | 38 | $ | - | $ | 58 | ||||||||||
Net discount
(premium) amortization
|
6 | 1 | (3 | ) | - | 4 | ||||||||||||||
Total
interest income
|
25 | 2 | 35 | - | 62 | |||||||||||||||
Management
fees
|
1 | - | - | (1 | ) | - | ||||||||||||||
Interest
expense
|
(1 | ) | - | (20 | ) | (21 | ) | |||||||||||||
Net interest
income
|
25 | 2 | 15 | (1 | ) | 41 | ||||||||||||||
Provision for
loan losses
|
- | - | (9 | ) | - | (9 | ) | |||||||||||||
Market
valuation adjustments, net
|
(2 | ) | (1 | ) | (1 | ) | - | (4 | ) | |||||||||||
Net interest
income after provision and market valuation adjustments
|
23 | 1 | 5 | (1 | ) | 28 | ||||||||||||||
Operating
expenses
|
(11 | ) | (1 | ) | - | 1 | (11 | ) | ||||||||||||
Realized
gains, net
|
20 | - | - | - | 20 | |||||||||||||||
Income from
the Fund
|
- | - | - | - | - | |||||||||||||||
Income from
Securitization Entities
|
5 | - | - | (5 | ) | - | ||||||||||||||
Noncontrolling
interest
|
- | - | - | - | - | |||||||||||||||
Provision for
income taxes
|
3 | - | - | - | 3 | |||||||||||||||
Net
income
|
$ | 40 | $ | - | $ | 5 | $ | (5 | ) | $ | 40 |
THE REDWOOD
REVIEW 1ST QUARTER 2010
|
19
|
|
|
FINANCIAL
INSIGHTS
|
u
|
At Redwood,
net interest income was $27 million for the first quarter of 2010, as
compared to $25 million for the fourth quarter of 2009. An increase in
amortization income on securities due to higher expected future interest
rates contributed to the increase in quarterly interest
income.
|
u
|
In the near
term, we continue to expect net interest income to be driven primarily by
our residential senior securities, which comprised 88% of the securities
we held at March 31, 2010. During the first quarter, these securities
generated $17 million of interest income, or a 13% effective annual yield
on amortized cost that was comprised of 6% coupon interest and 7% discount
amortization income. Over time, net interest income will be affected by
how we deploy our cash balances and future cash
flow.
|
u
|
Gains on sale
of securities amounted to $38 million (and generated total proceeds of
$124 million) in the first quarter, compared to $20 million of gains
reported in the fourth quarter of 2009. Of the $38 million of gains, $28
million were already reflected in our balance sheet as of the beginning of
the quarter and $10 million were increases in value during the
quarter.
|
u
|
Negative
market valuation adjustments (MVA) were $3 million in the first quarter, a
slight increase from the MVA in the prior quarter primarily due to
impairments on securities. To the extent our loss expectations do not
significantly change, we expect the pace of future impairments on
securities to remain near levels observed in recent
quarters.
|
u
|
Operating
expenses of $17 million for Redwood included $4 million of one-time
compensation costs related to the retirement of our CEO and co-founder,
George E. Bull, III. Additionally, operating expenses were reduced in the
fourth quarter to reflect an adjustment to our 2009 variable compensation
expense. The current quarter’s operating expenses (excluding the
non-recurring charge of $4 million) are at a level that we currently
believe to be a good estimate of the run-rate for the remainder of this
year.
|
u
|
We recognized
net income of $2 million in the first quarter from our investments in the
Fund and in the consolidated Sequoia and Acacia securitization
entities.
|
u
|
Net interest
income was $14 million in the first quarter, a decrease of $3 million from
the fourth quarter of 2009. This decrease was primarily due to the poor
credit performance on securities held at Acacia, resulting in lower
interest income.
|
u
|
The provision
for loan losses at Sequoia totaled $9 million in the first quarter,
unchanged from the fourth quarter of 2009. Although serious delinquencies
(90+ days past due) continued to rise to 4.32% in the first quarter from
3.98% at the end of the fourth quarter, the rate of increase was
consistent with the fourth quarter. There are currently three Sequoia
entities for which we have expensed aggregate loan loss provisions of $2
million in excess of our reported investment for GAAP purposes. At this
time we do not expect to deconsolidate any Sequoia entities in
2010.
|
20
|
THE REDWOOD
REVIEW 1ST QUARTER 2010
|
|
|
FINANCIAL
INSIGHTS
|
u
|
Market
valuation adjustments were negative $8 million for interest rate hedges at
the Acacia securitization entities. This reflects the net changes in the
values of, and net interest payments associated with, these derivative
instruments.
|
u
|
Realized
gains of $6 million resulted from the gain of $7 million from the
repurchase of asset-backed securities issued by one of the Sequoia
entities, partially offset by losses of $1 million from the sale of
securities at the Fund.
|
u
|
Our
consolidated securitization entities are subject to a number of economic
uncertainties that can result in volatility to our reported income. For
example, changes in the market values of securitized assets may not move
in tandem with changes in the market values of securitized liabilities due
to liquidity and other market factors. Derivative hedging instruments in
Acacia may also not move in conjunction with the market values of the
hedged liabilities, and the timing of interest payments on these
derivatives may not occur in the same accounting period as the payments on
the hedged liabilities. In addition, varying accounting classifications
and treatments for certain of our Sequoia and Acacia entities can
contribute to volatility in our
earnings.
|
THE REDWOOD
REVIEW 1ST QUARTER 2010
|
21
|
|
|
FINANCIAL
INSIGHTS
|
u
|
Taxable
income is pre-tax profit as calculated for tax purposes. REIT taxable
income is income earned at the Redwood REIT together with income earned at
REIT subsidiaries and excludes undistributed taxable income earned at our
taxable subsidiaries. We are required to distribute at least 90% of our
REIT taxable income in the form of dividends to shareholders in order to
maintain our tax status as a REIT. Our board of directors can declare
dividends in excess of this minimum
requirement.
|
u
|
Estimated
taxable income for the first quarter of 2010 was $1 million, or $0.01 per
share, as compared to negative $34 million, or $(0.44) per share, for the
fourth quarter of 2009.
|
u
|
Although
taxable income turned positive in the first quarter, we still expect to
realize a taxable loss for the full year in 2010. The timing of credit
losses on securities we own has a large impact on our quarterly taxable
income. In the first quarter, our credit losses were lower than in the
prior quarter ($24 million versus $54 million) due to ongoing efforts by
the government to promote loan modifications and reduce foreclosures.
These efforts will likely continue to affect timing of loss recognition.
We anticipate an additional $252 million of losses on securities in future
periods for tax purposes; for GAAP purposes we have reserves for these
anticipated losses.
|
u
|
There are
differences that exist in accounting under GAAP and for tax purposes that
can lead to significant variances in the amount and timing of when income
and losses are recognized under these two accounting methods. The most
significant difference continues to be the realization of credit losses.
Another difference is sales. Taxable gains may be offset by prior period
capital losses, which totaled $85 million at March 31, 2010. To the extent
we sell assets and recognize gains for GAAP there may be no gain included
in taxable income. Reconciliations of GAAP and tax income are shown in
Table 2 in the Financial Tables in this
Review.
|
u
|
Under the tax
code, REIT dividend distribution requirements are tied to taxable income.
Given our net operating loss carryforwards and our projection of a taxable
loss in 2010, we currently expect to have no dividend distribution
requirements. However, in November 2009, our board of directors announced
its intention to pay a quarterly regular dividend of $0.25 per share in
2010. We do not expect to pay any special dividends in
2010.
|
u
|
On March 17,
2010, our board of directors declared a regular dividend of $0.25 per
share for the first quarter, which was paid on April 21, 2010 to
shareholders of record on March 31,
2010.
|
u
|
As a result
of our tax loss expectations in 2010, we currently expect that this year’s
dividend distributions will be characterized as return of capital.
However, if credit losses remain at lower levels than experienced in
recent quarters and we do generate positive taxable income, a portion of
this year’s dividend distributions would be characterized as ordinary
income (to the extent of the 2010
income).
|
22
|
THE REDWOOD
REVIEW 1ST QUARTER 2010
|
|
|
FINANCIAL
INSIGHTS
|
u
|
In the first
quarter, our business cash flow remained strong and in line with our
expectations. Our business cash flow exceeded dividend distributions and
this excess funded our acquisitions. We ended the quarter with about the
same cash balance as we started the quarter — $242
million.
|
u
|
We believe
our current GAAP income statements are reflective of our current
underlying business trends, especially given the nature of the assets we
currently hold. We also consider cash flow one of a number of other
important operating metrics; however, we realize that quarterly cash flow
measures have limitations. In particular, we
note:
|
•
|
When
securities are purchased at large discounts from face value it is
difficult to determine what portion of the cash received is a return “of”
principal and what portion is a return “on” principal. It is only at the
end of an asset’s life that we can accurately determine what portion of
the cumulative cash received (whether principal or interest) was income
and what was a return of
capital.
|
•
|
Certain
investments may generate cash flow in a quarter that is not necessarily
reflective of the long-term economic yield we will earn on the
investments. For example, we acquired certain re-REMIC support securities
at what we believe to be attractive yields. Due to their terms, however,
these securities are locked out of receiving any principal payments for
years. Because of the deferred receipt of principal payments, formulating
any conclusions on the value or performance of these securities by looking
solely at the early quarterly cash flow may not be indicative of economic
returns.
|
•
|
Cash flow
from securities and investments can be volatile from quarter to quarter
depending on the level of invested capital, the timing of credit losses,
acquisitions, sales, and changes in prepayments and interest
rates.
|
THE REDWOOD
REVIEW 1ST QUARTER 2010
|
23
|
|
|
FINANCIAL
INSIGHTS
|
u
|
The sources
and uses of cash in the table below are derived from our GAAP Consolidated
Statement of Cash Flow for the first quarter of 2010 and the fourth
quarter of 2009 by aggregating and netting all items in a manner
consistent with the way management analyzes them. This table excludes the
gross cash flow generated by our Sequoia and Acacia securitization
entities and the Fund (cash flow that is not available to Redwood), but
does include the cash flow distributed to Redwood as a result of our
investments in these entities. The beginning and ending cash balances
presented in the table below are GAAP
amounts.
|
Redwood
Sources
and Uses of Cash
|
||||||||
($
in millions)
|
||||||||
Three
Months Ended
|
||||||||
3/31/2010
|
12/31/2009
|
|||||||
Beginning
cash balance
|
$ | 243 | $ | 217 | ||||
Business cash
flow:
|
||||||||
Cash flow
from securities and investments
|
$ | 193 | $ | 134 | ||||
Asset
management fees
|
1 | 1 | ||||||
Cash
operating expenses
|
(16 | ) | (11 | ) | ||||
Interest
expense on long-term debt
|
(1 | ) | (1 | ) | ||||
Total
business cash flow
|
177 | 123 | ||||||
Other sources
and uses:
|
||||||||
Changes in
working capital
|
(2 | ) | (9 | ) | ||||
Acquistions
(1)
|
(156 | ) | (68 | ) | ||||
Dividends
|
(20 | ) | (20 | ) | ||||
Net other
uses
|
(178 | ) | (97 | ) | ||||
Net
(uses) sources of cash
|
$ | (1 | ) | $ | 26 | |||
Ending
cash balance
|
$ | 242 | $ | 243 |
(1)Total
acquisitions in the first quarter of 2010 were $189 million, $33 million
which are not reflected in this table because they did not settle until
early April 2010. In the fourth quarter of 2009, all acquisitions were
settled within the
period.
|
24
|
THE REDWOOD
REVIEW 1ST QUARTER 2010
|
|
|
FINANCIAL
INSIGHTS
|
u
|
As detailed
in the table below, we now include proceeds from sales as a component of
business cash flow. While it is generally our intention when we acquire
assets to hold them to maturity and receive principal and interest
payments over their lives, we sell assets from time to time as part of our
continuing management of risk and return expectations. A sale effectively
accelerates the receipt of these cash
flows.
|
Redwood
|
||||||||
Cash
Flow from Securities and Investments
|
||||||||
($
in millions)
|
||||||||
Three
Months Ended
|
||||||||
3/31/2010
|
12/31/2009
|
|||||||
Securities at
Redwood
|
||||||||
Residential
Seniors
|
||||||||
Principal and
Interest
|
$ | 40 | $ | 41 | ||||
Proceeds from
Sales
|
73 | 27 | ||||||
Total
|
113 | 68 | ||||||
Residential
Re-REMICs
|
||||||||
Principal and
Interest
|
3 | 4 | ||||||
Proceeds from
Sales
|
51 | 31 | ||||||
Total
|
54 | 35 | ||||||
Residential
Subordinates principal and interest
|
8 | 10 | ||||||
Commercial
and CDO Subordinates
|
||||||||
Principal and
Interest
|
1 | 1 | ||||||
Proceeds from
Sales
|
- | 8 | ||||||
Total
|
1 | 9 | ||||||
Total cash
flow from securities at Redwood
|
176 | 122 | ||||||
Investments
in the Fund
|
9 | 2 | ||||||
Investments
in Sequoia entities
|
8 | 10 | ||||||
Investments
in Acacia entities
|
- | - | ||||||
Total
cash flow from securities and investments
|
$ | 193 | $ | 134 |
u
|
Total cash
flow from securities and investments was $193 million for the first
quarter, an increase of $59 million from the prior quarter, primarily due
to an increased level of sales.
|
u
|
Total
proceeds from the sale of securities were $124 million in the first
quarter. Redwood’s investment in the Fund generated $9 million of cash
flow due to sales of securities during the
period.
|
THE REDWOOD
REVIEW 1ST QUARTER 2010
|
25
|
|
|
NEW SECURITIZATION INITIATIVE |
u
|
Redwood
performed due diligence relating to the mortgage loans backing this
securitization. The securitization process started with Redwood
identifying the general credit criteria, that is the loan size, LTV and
other credit and loan characteristics, that it wanted to characterize the
loans underlying this first securitization. In conjunction with this,
Redwood representatives met with the originator to understand the
originator’s underwriting process and procedures for originating jumbo
loans. Once the pool of loans were identified as having met the general
criteria, Redwood and a third party due diligence provider reviewed every
loan for compliance with the originator’s underwriting guidelines and
criteria and for adherence to all regulatory and legal requirements. In
addition, Redwood and its third party due diligence provider reviewed each
appraisal that the originator had obtained in originating the loans. Each
loan had to be submitted to these reviews in order to be included in the
final pool. This process enabled Redwood to buy only those loans that
conformed to our own specific acquisition criteria compared to prior
industry practices in which sellers would often assemble a package of
loans that were then put out for bid to all interested parties and the
buyers had to bid on the entire
package.
|
u
|
Representations
and warranties provided by originators of mortgage loans included in
securitizations have traditionally varied widely across transactions and
credit classes (prime, Alt-A, subprime, etc.). The American Securitization
Forum (ASF) has developed a set of industry standard representations and
warranties to facilitate a consistent approach to enable investors to
understand protections afforded them. Additionally, the rating agencies
have also published their required representations and warranties, some of
which are slightly different from the ASF. Redwood reviewed these various
sets and developed a set of representations and warranties that meet or
exceed both of these standards.
|
26
|
THE REDWOOD
REVIEW 1ST QUARTER 2010
|
|
|
NEW
SECURITIZATION
INITIATIVE
|
u
|
In our view,
the strength of the representations and warranties is only as good as the
enforcement mechanism. To address this issue, we included a binding
arbitration clause in SEMT 2010-H1. Binding arbitration enables the
responsible parties to reach resolution on a disagreement without ending
up in litigation. We believe this mechanism will facilitate more
productive and timely responses to what, in many cases, are not always
easily resolved issues.
|
u
|
To further
facilitate the post-securitization review for violations of
representations and warranties, all origination files were provided to
Redwood as the buyer of the loans.
|
u
|
It is being
proposed by various policy makers that a fixed 5% of a securitization be
retained. Others are advocating higher fixed rate percentages. A fixed
percentage is enticing as it seems easy to understand and apply. However,
we strongly believe this approach is too simplistic and could disrupt the
flow of mortgage credit to prime borrowers while inappropriately providing
an incentive to engage in securitizations of higher risk mortgage loans.
Instead, we believe the amount of risk retention in a securitization
should vary according to the underlying
risk.
|
u
|
One approach,
for example, would be to tie risk retention requirements to the rating
agency subordination levels. We realize there is a desire on the part of
some to reduce the amount of reliance on credit agencies and encourage
investors to undertake their own analysis. However, in our
opinion, rating agencies provide useful information. Furthermore, the
rating process establishes subordination levels after taking into
consideration the quality of the collateral and structure of the
securitization, among other
factors.
|
u
|
For example,
if the risk retention percentage was set at 100% of the non-investment
grade subordinate securities, then a securitization backed by prime jumbo
mortgages with the senior AAA investment grade securities representing 94%
of the securitization, the mezzanine securities (AA, A, BBB) representing
3% of the securitization, and the subordinate or non-investment grade
securities (BB, B, Not Rated) representing 3% of the securitization, the
risk retention requirement would be 3%. Alternatively, for a
securitization with lesser quality subprime mortgage collateral in a
structure in which the senior AAA securities represent 70% of the
securitization, the mezzanine securities represent 10%, and the
subordinated securities represent 20%, the retention requirement for this
transaction would be 20%.
|
u
|
A very
important aspect of risk retention is how that risk is retained by
sponsors. We are strong a advocate of retaining a “horizontal slice” of
first-loss credit risk from the securitization structure. We are not
advocates of the “vertical slice” approach because we strongly believe
this structure does not properly incent sponsors to structure sound
securitizations and does not necessarily align the sponsors’ interests
with those of investors. In fact, only the horizontal slice structure
fully exposes the sponsor to the majority of the credit risk in a
securitization and, as the proposals note, having sponsors maintain the
credit risk supports the notion that their interests will be properly
aligned with investors’ interests.
|
THE REDWOOD
REVIEW 1ST QUARTER 2010
|
27
|
|
|
NEW SECURITIZATION INITIATIVE |
u
|
Examples of
the horizontal and vertical slices for a hypothetical $250 million
securitization are displayed in the diagram below. In our recent
securitization we retained both a horizontal and vertical slice of risk in
order to satisfy alternate proposals until the final rule is adopted.
However, we do not advocate this as the solution, as it will deter useful
and productive securitizations.
|
u
|
These are two
very different risk retention profiles. In the horizontal slice approach,
the sponsor’s entire investment ($7.5 million in this example) is in a
first loss position. Under the vertical slice approach, the sponsor has a
small amount ($450,000) in the subordinated securities and the majority of
its investment ($7.05 million) in the senior securities that are last in
line to incur credit losses. It is our opinion that the sponsor that has
all its capital in the first loss position has its interests most aligned
with the interests of all the security holders because the sponsor is
retaining the most significant portion of the
risk.
|
28
|
THE REDWOOD
REVIEW 1ST QUARTER 2010
|
|
|
NEW
SECURITIZATION
INITIATIVE
|
u
|
Advocates of
the vertical slice approach argue that by owning a piece of each (senior,
mezzanine, subordinate) security, the sponsor’s interests are more closely
aligned with all security holders than if it owned just the subordinate
securities. We believe this premise is based on prior subprime
securitizations in which the subordinate security holders that were also
the loan servicers had the ability to influence cash distributions to
their benefit resulting in a “tranche warfare” between the investment
grade and the subordinate non-investment grade security holders. It is
important to understand that subprime securitizations used
“over-collateralization” structures, which had the potential to distribute
large amounts of cash to the subordinate security holders if certain
collateral tests were met at or after the 36th month of the
securitization’s life. To insure compliance (and a payout) with the
collateral tests, some servicers bought delinquent loans out of
securitizations to the detriment of the senior security holders. We also
note that in prime securitizations, an alternative (shifting interest)
securitization structure is used, and this does not have the same features
that led to this tranche warfare that occurred in subprime
securitizations.
|
u
|
In addition
to using a securitization structure that requires the sponsor to retain a
horizontal slice of the securitization and thus eliminates the likelihood
of unaligned incentives, we believe the better approach to managing issues
between the different tranches of security holders is by changing the
collateral tests within the structure so that they reduce inter-tranche
conflicts. For example, in our recent securitization, for purposes of the
collateral tests, modified loans will be counted as delinquent for 12
months following the date of modification, reducing the immediate impact
of loan modifications on the allocation of cash flows between senior and
subordinate tranches.
|
u
|
It is
Redwood’s opinion that, while the vertical slice approach may address
certain aspects of the concerns among the different class of security
holders, it also substantially circumvents the rationale for the risk
retention requirement since the sponsor would only have a small percentage
of its investment in the subordinate securities. This opinion is supported
by many institutional investors that we have discussed this issue
with.
|
u
|
We are firmly
aligned with investors in the desire to have comprehensive disclosures
available. Comprehensive disclosure is not just the amount of information,
but consistency of definitions. For example, in the past, terms such as
“full doc” would mean different things to different investors and issuers.
So instead of relying on terms such as “full doc,” we disclose whether
assets were verified and for what period income was verified. We have also
adopted the ASF disclosure package reporting format as part of our ongoing
commitment to information consistency. This format includes an extensive
and consistent list of data points for investors to consider in their
investment decisions.
|
THE REDWOOD
REVIEW 1ST QUARTER 2010
|
29
|
|
|
NEW SECURITIZATION INITIATIVE |
u
|
Another
concern for investors was the potential conflict of interest in deals in
which the originator, servicer, and trustee were the same entity (or
affiliates of each other), as it is difficult to assume that the trustee
would provide as much attention and oversight in pursuit of representation
and warranty violations against its own affiliate. To address this
concern, Redwood suggests using an independent third party to act as
trustee, as we did in our recent
securitization.
|
u
|
Redwood
supports the notion of requiring securitization sponsors or the
controlling party to consolidate securitizations in order to increase
transparency in financial statements. However, the new accounting
standards (FAS 166/167) may not result in as much consolidation as some
expect.
|
u
|
In a typical
residential mortgage securitization structure, if the sponsor of the
securitization is not the servicer (which is the case for
Redwood-sponsored securitizations), the sponsor generally would not
consolidate the transaction — regardless of how much skin-in-the-game is
retained — if it cedes authority over the resolution of delinquent loans
to the servicer in accordance with policy makers’ suggestions. At the same
time, the servicer likely wouldn’t consolidate this transaction either, as
it will have control but generally wouldn’t have a significant economic
interest. We think that is a surprising result — and probably not the
intended consequence of policy makers’ objectives to both shine light on
shadow banking transactions and have servicers control the resolution of
problem loans.
|
u
|
The
consolidation result becomes even more surprising if the securitization
sponsor is also the servicer. In such a case, the sponsor/servicer will
have control, so the consolidation determination will hinge on whether the
sponsor retained a significant economic interest in the transaction. The
accounting guidance is not specific regarding what “significant” means,
but some industry participants are interpreting this to mean more than 10%
of each tranche of the securitization sold to investors. This is where the
regulators’ definition of skin-in-the-game comes into the picture — and
where, again, reform efforts in one area can have an unintended
consequence on other areas. If skin-in-the-game is defined as a 5%
vertical slice (or a 5% ownership of each tranche of the securitization
sold to investors), then the sponsor/servicer could be considered not to
hold a significant economic interest and would, therefore, not be required
to consolidate — and neither would anyone else. On the other hand, if
skin-in-the-game is defined as a 5% horizontal slice (or the 5% most
subordinate or first loss tranche(s) of a securitization), then, it seems
to us, a more rational (and intended) consequence likely results — i.e.,
the sponsor/servicer would be required to consolidate the transaction.
Much will be riding on the outcome of the vertical and horizontal risk
retention issue.
|
30
|
THE REDWOOD
REVIEW 1ST QUARTER 2010
|
|
|
NEW
SECURITIZATION
INITIATIVE
|
u
|
We are
committed to an on going process of enhancing the Sequoia program and
securitizations of residential mortgage loans in general. However, it was
unrealistic to be able to include all potential enhancements in this first
deal. Other enhancements that we are working on
include:
|
•
|
Triple-A
investors have asked for direct access to mortgage loan files in order to
independently assess the borrowers’ credit and the underwriting decisions.
While we understand the intent, logistics and privacy concerns need to be
addressed before full access to files can be
offered.
|
•
|
Second liens
continue to be a concern in the market and investors are wary about a
potential material change in a borrower’s risk if a second lien on the
property is taken out after closing of the first lien. We are reviewing
what processes could be established to limit the ability of lenders to
place second liens on properties without the consent of first mortgage
holders, or that would enable ongoing disclosure to investors regarding
second lien balances in the deals we sponsor so that investors can
understand how their potential risk may change as a result of second
liens.
|
THE REDWOOD
REVIEW 1ST QUARTER 2010
|
31
|
|
|
RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE SECURITIES |
u
|
During the
first quarter, market prices for non-agency RMBS initially decreased and
subsequently increased and ended the quarter at prices relatively close to
where they began. The following chart illustrates generic prices that
investors were willing to pay for senior RMBS from the beginning of 2008
through March 2010.
|
32
|
THE REDWOOD
REVIEW 1ST QUARTER 2010
|
|
|
RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE
SECURITIES
|
u
|
During the
first quarter, we acquired $180 million and sold $124 million of RMBS. The
return of greater liquidity in the RMBS market allowed us to monetize some
of the future expected cash flow in the current period. We may continue to
sell assets into this market if we believe it is in the best interest of
our shareholders.
|
u
|
During April
2010, we purchased $5 million of securities and sold $94 million of
securities. (In addition, we invested $28 million in our new
securitization, SEMT 2010-H1, which is discussed in the New Securitization
Initiatives module.)
|
u
|
Fundamentals
have caused house price depreciation since 2006 (~29% in the Case Shiller
Composite-20), which has been sufficient to restore nationwide housing
affordability to levels we believe are consistent with long-term
stability. Price-to-rent and price-to-income metrics are within their
historic range, which suggests that the fundamentally driven reversion in
home prices is nearing an end for the nation as a whole. This may not
necessarily be true for each
market.
|
u
|
Further,
price risk stems from more “technical” issues. Oversupply continues to be
a major obstacle to a recovery in home prices. Even in markets where
affordability has been restored, supply overhang is holding prices down.
Excess supply is a key reason for our belief that housing prices have
further to decline.
|
u
|
Housing
inventories have increased since January. The National Association of
Realtors reported that the number of homes for sale in March increased 9%
quarter-over-quarter, and months of supply has increased 11% to 8 months
over the same period.
|
•
|
The relative
stability of home prices in 2009 was due in part to 9 months of declining
inventories. A reversal of this trend will have negative consequences for
housing markets in 2010.
|
•
|
This new
supply may represent new listings of seriously delinquent mortgage
properties. This “shadow inventory,” which Amherst Securities estimates at
over 7 million homes, potentially represents another 16 months of
supply.
|
•
|
A portion of
the increase reflects the seasonality of home listings, which normally
increase during the spring and summer. From 2000-2009, both inventories
and months of supply have increased 6% on average during the first quarter
of the calendar year. The first quarter 2010 readings noted above suggest
that there are other, non-seasonal forces
involved.
|
u
|
The
Treasury’s goal through the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) is
to help 3 to 4 million homeowners avoid foreclosure through 2012. This
program continues to move forward at a slower than originally anticipated
pace. According to the Treasury Department’s latest data for March 2010,
over 1.4 million borrowers have been offered trial modifications, 1.2
million modification trials have been initiated, and 230,801 trials have
been made permanent. Loan servicers continue to face a large backlog of
delinquent loans, conflicts remain between the interests of first- and
second-lien holders, borrowers are not providing documentation, and
borrowers with significant negative equity have little incentive to
continue making payments.
|
THE REDWOOD
REVIEW 1ST QUARTER 2010
|
33
|
|
|
RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE SECURITIES |
u
|
In late
March, the Treasury amended the HAMP program to add principal reduction as
a potential option for servicers. As we noted in a prior Review, with
approximately 25% of borrowers having negative equity and projections for
that percentage to approximately double over the next two years, many
borrowers with negative equity have few incentives to continue making
their payments, particularly if they have little or no hope of recovering
lost value. It is too early to determine how successful principal
reductions will be since the program is voluntary for lenders and
borrowers must be current on their existing mortgages and must fully
document their loan applications.
|
u
|
The presence
of second mortgage liens on many houses complicates loan modification
efforts. In summary, second lien holders, who often have recourse to
borrowers for balance deficiencies, are often unwilling or have little
incentive to work with borrowers and holders of first mortgages,
particularly borrowers who are perceived to be engaging in strategic
defaults. Strategic defaults occur when borrowers have the capacity to pay
and decide not to pay their mortgages, often to gain negotiating leverage
to obtain loan modifications. In late March, the Treasury issued details
of its second-lien modification program, which includes financial
incentives for second-lien holders to participate. The second-lien program
will take some time to implement and additional details and procedures
still need to be worked out, which will likely further delay loan
modifications in the near term.
|
u
|
Industry-wide,
the first quarter increase in the level of delinquencies continues to be
within our expectations. According to LoanPerformance, the percentage of
non-agency borrowers who have missed two or more payments (60+ days) is
nearly 10% for prime borrowers and 31% for Alt-A borrowers on an
industry-wide basis. At Redwood, 60+ days delinquencies on loans
underlying the prime and non-prime residential securities we own are
modestly lower than the industry.
|
u
|
According to
data from LoanPerformance, industry-wide prepayment rates on prime loans
were unchanged in the first quarter at 15% CPR. Prepayment rates on loans
underlying prime RMBS held by Redwood continue to be modestly faster than
the industry average, reflecting the concentration of securities we own in
older vintages.
|
u
|
Industry-wide,
prepayment rates for Alt-A loans were approximately 5% in the first
quarter according to data from LoanPerformance. The prepayment rates on
non-prime securities we own (which are predominately backed by Alt-A
loans) were also modestly faster than the industry average, also
reflecting the concentration of our securities in older vintages. Given
the more stringent underwriting guidelines in the current environment, we
expect prepayment rates on Alt-A loans to remain at low
levels.
|
34
|
THE REDWOOD
REVIEW 1ST QUARTER 2010
|
|
|
RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE
SECURITIES
|
u
|
Industry-wide,
prime prepayment speeds have been strongly correlated with loan age as
more seasoned loans (which generally have more equity) are prepaying in
the mid-to-high teens compared to the low-teens for more recent
vintages.
|
u
|
Prepayment
speeds on many of the securities we own have generally been ahead of our
expectations from the time of acquisition. To the extent that prepayment
rates remain above our expectations, all else being equal, the yields on
our securities will increase as we will realize our unamortized discount
sooner.
|
u
|
Interest
income generated by residential securities we own was $27 million in the
first quarter of 2010, an annualized yield of 16% on the amortized cost of
these securities. The increase in yield from the prior quarter reflects
the expectation of higher interest rates on floating rate securities,
consistent with many market forecasts for future benchmark LIBOR rates.
Note that this expectation also informed our decision to hedge our
floating rate long-term debt in the first
quarter.
|
u
|
At March 31,
2010, the fair value of residential securities we own totaled $830
million, consisting of $372 million in prime senior securities, $368
million in non-prime senior securities, $67 million in re-REMIC
securities, and $23 million in subordinate securities. Each of these is
further discussed below.
|
u
|
The
securities we held at March 31, 2010, consisted of fixed-rate assets
(38%), adjustable-rate assets that reset within the next year (43%),
hybrid assets that reset between 12 and 36 months (6%), and hybrid assets
that reset after 36 months (13%).
|
THE REDWOOD
REVIEW 1ST QUARTER 2010
|
35
|
|
|
RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE SECURITIES |
u
|
The following
table presents information on residential prime senior securities at
Redwood at March 31, 2010.
|
Credit
Support Analysis - Prime Senior Securities at Redwood
|
||||||||||||||||||||
By
Vintage
|
||||||||||||||||||||
March
31, 2010
|
||||||||||||||||||||
($
in millions)
|
||||||||||||||||||||
<=2004
|
2005
|
2006
|
2007
|
Total
|
||||||||||||||||
Current
face
|
$ | 17 | $ | 340 | $ | 16 | $ | 78 | $ | 451 | ||||||||||
Net
unamortized discount
|
(4 | ) | (89 | ) | (5 | ) | (16 | ) | (114 | ) | ||||||||||
Credit
reserve
|
- | (9 | ) | - | (6 | ) | (15 | ) | ||||||||||||
Unrealized
gains (losses)
|
1 | 43 | (1 | ) | 7 | 50 | ||||||||||||||
Fair
value of AFS Prime Senior Securities
|
$ | 14 | $ | 285 | $ | 10 | $ | 63 | $ | 372 | ||||||||||
Overall credit support to Prime
Senior Securities (1)
|
11.00 | % | 7.33 | % | 6.28 | % | 7.03 | % | 7.31 | % | ||||||||||
Serious delinquencies as a % of
collateral balance (1)
|
7.87 | % | 7.41 | % | 8.59 | % | 7.44 | % | 7.48 | % | ||||||||||
(1) Overall
credit support and serious delinquency rates are weighted by
securitization balances. Credit support and delinquencies may vary
significantly by securitization. Serious delinquencies include loans over
90-days past due, in foreclosure, and
REO.
|
u
|
The overall
credit support data presented in the table above represents the level of
support for prime securities owned by Redwood. At March 31, 2010, the
overall level of credit support was 7.31%, which means that losses in the
aggregate would have to exceed this amount of the current face amount of
the securities before Redwood would suffer losses. However, some
securities have either more or less credit support than others, so it is
possible for some securities to incur losses without aggregate losses
exceeding the overall credit support. For example, in the first quarter of
2010, we incurred credit losses of $2 million for GAAP purposes on senior
securities, even though aggregate losses did not exceed our overall credit
support. Over time, the performance of these securities may require a
change in the amount of credit reserves we designate. We acquire
securities assuming a range of outcomes and believe our returns can still
be attractive even if losses increase above our current
estimates.
|
u
|
Comparing the
level of credit support available to seriously delinquent loans provides a
measure of the level of credit sensitivity that exists within our senior
securities portfolio. For example, the senior securities have 7.31% of
credit support with serious delinquencies currently at 7.48%. Assuming a
historically high 50% loss severity on these loans would produce losses of
3.74%, leaving enough credit support for an additional 3.57% of losses
before the senior securities would start to absorb credit
losses.
|
36
|
THE REDWOOD
REVIEW 1ST QUARTER 2010
|
|
|
RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE
SECURITIES
|
u
|
The following
table presents information on residential non-prime senior securities at
Redwood at March 31, 2010.
|
Credit
Support Analysis - Non-Prime Senior Securities at Redwood
|
||||||||||||||||||||
By
Vintage
|
||||||||||||||||||||
March
31, 2010
|
||||||||||||||||||||
($
in millions)
|
||||||||||||||||||||
<=2004
|
2005
|
2006
|
2007
|
Total
|
||||||||||||||||
Current
face
|
$ | 142 | $ | 302 | $ | 26 | $ | 2 | $ | 472 | ||||||||||
Net
unamortized discount
|
(39 | ) | (86 | ) | (8 | ) | - | (133 | ) | |||||||||||
Credit
reserve
|
- | (10 | ) | (3 | ) | - | (13 | ) | ||||||||||||
Unrealized
gains (losses)
|
14 | 20 | 2 | - | 36 | |||||||||||||||
Fair
value of Non-Prime Senior Securities (AFS)
|
$ | 117 | $ | 226 | $ | 17 | $ | 2 | $ | 362 | ||||||||||
Overall credit support to
Non-Prime Senior Securities (1)
|
15.73 | % | 16.39 | % | 27.54 | % | 4.22 | % | 16.68 | % | ||||||||||
Serious delinquencies as a % of
collateral balance (1)
|
11.02 | % | 13.96 | % | 22.46 | % | 7.15 | % | 13.78 | % | ||||||||||
Fair
value of Non-Prime Senior Securities (trading)
|
$ | - | $ | 6 | $ | - | $ | - | $ | 6 | ||||||||||
Total
fair value of Non-Prime Senior Securities
|
$ | 117 | $ | 232 | $ | 17 | $ | 2 | $ | 368 |
(1) Overall
credit support and serious delinquency rates are weighted by
securitization balances. Credit support and delinquencies may vary
significantly by securitization. Serious delinquencies include loans over
90-days past due, in foreclosure, and
REO.
|
u
|
Serious
delinquencies in our non-prime senior portfolio are significantly higher
than in our prime senior portfolio. However, the levels of credit and
structural support are also significantly higher and, as a result, our
non-prime senior portfolio is better able to withstand the higher levels
of credit losses we expect to incur on these
pools.
|
THE REDWOOD
REVIEW 1ST QUARTER 2010
|
37
|
|
|
RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE SECURITIES |
u
|
The following
table presents information on residential non-senior securities at Redwood
at March 31, 2010.
|
Residential
Non-Senior Securities at Redwood
|
||||||||||||
March
31, 2010
|
||||||||||||
($
in millions)
|
||||||||||||
Subordinate
|
re-REMIC
|
Total
|
||||||||||
Available for
sale (AFS)
|
||||||||||||
Current
face
|
$ | 383 | $ | 148 | $ | 531 | ||||||
Credit
reserve
|
(312 | ) | (43 | ) | (355 | ) | ||||||
Net
unamortized discount
|
(26 | ) | (69 | ) | (95 | ) | ||||||
Amortized
cost
|
45 | 36 | 81 | |||||||||
Unrealized
gains
|
2 | 31 | 33 | |||||||||
Unrealized
losses
|
(24 | ) | - | (24 | ) | |||||||
Fair
value of AFS non-senior securities
|
$ | 23 | $ | 67 | $ | 90 |
u
|
Credit losses
totaled $45 million in our residential subordinate portfolio in the first
quarter, a significant reduction from $98 million of losses in the fourth
quarter of 2009. We expect future losses will extinguish the majority of
these securities as reflected by the $312 million of credit reserves we
have provided for the $383 million face value of those securities. Until
the losses occur, we will continue to earn interest on the face value of
those securities.
|
u
|
There were no
credit losses in our re-REMIC portfolio in the first quarter. We do
anticipate losses and have set aside $43 million of the $148 million in
face value as credit reserves.
|
u
|
Our existing
portfolio of re-REMIC securities consist of prime residential senior
securities that have recently been pooled and re-securitized to create a
two-tranche structure and we own the support (or junior) security within
that structure.
|
u
|
In the first
quarter, we sold certain re-REMIC securities as part of our continuing
process of managing our risk and return profiles. These sales resulted in
substantial realized gains.
|
38
|
THE REDWOOD
REVIEW 1ST QUARTER 2010
|
|
|
COMMERCIAL
REAL ESTATE SECURITIES
|
u
|
Property
level fundamentals continue to deteriorate. As a result, the universe of
commercial real estate loans in bankruptcy, foreclosure, REO, being
modified or extended, or in default continues to rise (as illustrated in
the chart below). The volume of securitized commercial loans that are in
special servicing continues to grow and currently stands at $76 billion,
or 9.55% of all securitized commercial loans according to Realpoint,
LLC.
|
u
|
Other signs
of the distress in the commercial mortgage and property markets include
the trends in delinquencies and vacancies. For $1.3 trillion of commercial
and multifamily loans on bank balance sheets, the FDIC reports the 90+
days delinquent and non-accrual rate rose to 3.9% in the fourth quarter of
2009, up from 1.6% from a year ago, and are likely to continue to rise at
a brisk pace. For the $797 billion CMBS market, data supplied by
Realpoint, LLC, shows delinquencies rose to 6.4% at March 31, 2010, up
from 1.7% a year ago. The national vacancy rate for shopping centers
(10.8%), is at the highest level since 1991, the vacancy rates for malls
(8.9%) is at its highest level since being tracked, while the vacancy rate
for office properties (17.2%) is at the highest level since 2004. The
apartment sector may be showing signs of stabilizing as multifamily
vacancy held flat at 8.0% compared to the prior
quarter.
|
THE REDWOOD
REVIEW 1ST QUARTER 2010
|
39
|
|
|
COMMERCIAL
REAL ESTATE
SECURITIES
|
u
|
Sales and
financing activity remain at historic lows, though it is worth noting that
sales volumes in recent quarters are trending upwards, as illustrated in
the chart below. Commercial mortgage originations increased in the fourth
quarter, but remain at a low level in absolute terms. Commercial loan
originations were 12% higher than the same period last
year.
|
u
|
In spite of
the negative trends in the commercial market, we have seen that debt
availability has improved noticeably for higher quality assets. With life
insurers, banks, and conduit lenders eager to finance stabilized
properties in strong markets, lending spreads for these types of
properties have compressed
significantly.
|
40
|
THE REDWOOD
REVIEW 1ST QUARTER 2010
|
|
|
COMMERCIAL
REAL ESTATE SECURITIES
|
u
|
In the near
future, the demand for commercial real estate financing is expected to
greatly exceed the anticipated capacity, which we believe may result in a
long-term, sustainable opportunity to deploy capital at attractive rates
of return. Some in the industry estimate $30 billion of public and private
capital is available to support the debt financing market. However, this
is only a fraction of the estimated $300 billion needed to refinance
commercial loans in just in the next year. In fact, loan maturities in
2011, 2012, and 2013 feature the largest volume of maturing loans in
history, totaling over $900 billion. As the graph below illustrates,
elevated levels of debt maturities are expected to continue for several
years.
|
u
|
Our portfolio
of commercial securities (acquired prior to 2008) generated $1 million of
cash flow during the first quarter, the same as in the prior
quarter.
|
u
|
Realized
credit losses in the first quarter of 2010 on our commercial subordinate
securities were $7 million and were charged against our designated credit
reserve.
|
u
|
At March 31,
2010, our investments in commercial securities consisted of predominantly
2004 and 2005 vintage subordinate securities with a fair market value of
$9 million. These securities have a face value of $152 million and credit
reserves of $139 million.
|
THE REDWOOD
REVIEW 1ST QUARTER 2010
|
41
|
|
|
INVESTMENTS
IN SECURITIZATION ENTITIES
|
u
|
In the first
quarter, we reported GAAP income of $2 million from the Sequoia and Acacia
entities. This was a decrease from the $5 million reported in the fourth
quarter due to higher net negative market valuation adjustments on the
Acacia assets and liabilities.
|
u
|
Cash
generated by our investments in Sequoia and Acacia entities totaled $8
million in the first quarter of 2010 compared to $10 million in the fourth
quarter of 2009. The majority ($7 million) of this first quarter cash flow
was generated from Sequoia IOs we own which were primarily issued in 2005
and earlier.
|
u
|
Our
investments in consolidated securitization entities do not appear on our
balance sheet as assets; rather, they are reflected as the difference
between the consolidated assets of Sequoia and Acacia entities ($4.1
billion at March 31, 2010) and the consolidated Sequoia and Acacia ABS
issued to third parties ($4.0 billion at March 31, 2010). The assets and
liabilities of consolidated Sequoia entities are carried on our balance
sheet at their amortized cost and the assets and liabilities of
consolidated Acacia entities are carried on our balance sheet at their
fair market values. At March 31, 2010, the GAAP book value of our
investments in Sequoia and Acacia entities was $78 million, or 8% of our
reported book value.
|
u
|
The reported
book value of our investments in Sequoia and Acacia entities differs from
the $48 million estimated fair value of our investments in these
securitization entities, which consists of $38 million of IOs issued by
Sequoia entities, $10 million of senior and subordinate securities issued
by Sequoia entities, and a minimal amount representing the estimated fair
value of expected future management fees from Acacia discounted at
45%.
|
u
|
The
consolidation of the assets and liabilities of securitization entities may
lead to potentially volatile quarterly reported earnings for a variety of
reasons including the amortization of premium on the loans and liabilities
of Sequoia entities, changes in credit loss provisions for loans held by
Sequoia entities, fair value adjustments for the assets and liabilities of
the Acacia entities, and deconsolidation
events.
|
42
|
THE REDWOOD
REVIEW 1ST QUARTER 2010
|
|
|
INVESTMENTS
IN SECURITIZATION
ENTITIES
|
u
|
Our Sequoia
IOs earn the “spread” between the coupon rate on the $2.3 billion notional
amount of underlying adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) loans and the cost of
funds (indexed to one-month LIBOR) on the ABS issued within each
respective securitization entity. Since these IOs do not receive any
principal cash flows, the longer they receive this interest rate spread,
the higher the return. Thus, slower rates of principal repayments (i.e.,
the longer the underlying loans are outstanding) increase cash flows and
returns on these IOs. In March 2010, these loans had a weighted average
coupon of 1.92%. As we have seen for the past several quarters (and expect
to continue to experience as long as short-term rates remain low),
prepayment speeds on the underlying loans remain low, and averaged less
than 8% CPR in the first quarter.
|
u
|
For the 48
prime jumbo residential mortgage securitizations totaling $35 billion
issued by our Sequoia securitization entities (including five
securitizations for which a subsidiary of Redwood was the depositor but
which were not issued under the Sequoia program shelf registration
statement), cumulative losses total 0.28% of the original face amount of
the securities through
March 2010.
|
u
|
To date,
credit losses have not yet been incurred on any of the senior securities
issued by Sequoia entities in these securitizations, although a few of
these senior securities may incur losses in the future, depending on the
magnitude and timing of additional credit losses incurred by the
underlying loans.
|
u
|
The
information provided in the preceding two paragraphs references all
Sequoia securitizations, regardless of whether we are currently
consolidating the assets and liabilities for the specific Sequoia
securitization entity. Thus, delinquency information presented herein will
differ from information provided regarding Sequoia entities only included
in our consolidated balance sheet as of March 31,
2010.
|
u
|
In April
2010, we completed a $238 million prime jumbo residential mortgage
securitization through our Sequoia program. In this securitization 95% of
the senior securities were purchased by third parties, while Redwood
retained all of the subordinated securities (representing 6.5% of the
securitization), 5% of the senior securities, and the IO securities. We
anticipate consolidating this entity for financial reporting purposes,
pending our final interpretation of applicable GAAP pertaining to the
transfer of financial assets and consolidation of variable interest
entities. Additional information regarding this securitization is provided
in the New Securitization Initiative
module.
|
THE REDWOOD
REVIEW 1ST QUARTER 2010
|
43
|
|
|
ACCOUNTING
DISCUSSION
|
u
|
Market values
reflect an “exit price,” or the amount we believe we would realize if we
sold an asset or would pay if we repurchased a liability in an orderly
transaction, even though we generally have no intention — nor would we be
required — to sell assets or repurchase liabilities. Establishing market
values is inherently subjective and requires us to make a number of
assumptions, including the future of interest rates, prepayment rates,
discount rates, credit loss rates, and the timing of credit losses. The
assumptions we apply are specific to each asset or
liability.
|
u
|
Although we
rely on our internal calculations to compute the fair value of our
securities, we request and consider indications of value (marks) from
third-party dealers to assist us in our mark-to-market valuation process.
For March 31, 2010, we received dealer marks on 81% of our assets and 92%
of our liabilities. In the aggregate, our internal valuations of the
securities on which we received dealer marks were 4% lower (i.e., more
conservative) than the dealer marks and our internal valuations of our ABS
issued on which we received dealer marks were 9% higher (i.e., more
conservative) than the dealer
marks.
|
u
|
As discussed
in our second quarter 2009 Redwood Review, on April 1, 2009, we were
required to adopt a new accounting principle affecting the determination
of other-than-temporary impairment (OTTI) and its recognition through the
income statement and balance sheet. The revised multi-step process is
presented below. Upon adoption, we made a one-time retained earnings
reclassification of $60 million of prior impairments. As a result of this
reclassification, our book value did not change. As this impairment is
recovered over time, rather than flow through earnings (where the
impairment was originally reported), it will instead be credited to
equity. The net impact is that our cumulative reported earnings will now
be $60 million less than they would have been prior to adopting this
required accounting principle.
|
46
|
THE REDWOOD
REVIEW 1ST QUARTER 2010
|
|
|
GLOSSARY
|
THE REDWOOD
REVIEW 1ST QUARTER 2010
|
47
|
|
|
GLOSSARY
|
48
|
THE REDWOOD
REVIEW 1ST QUARTER 2010
|
|
|
GLOSSARY
|
THE REDWOOD
REVIEW 1ST QUARTER 2010
|
49
|
|
|
GLOSSARY
|
50
|
THE REDWOOD
REVIEW 1ST QUARTER 2010
|
|
|
GLOSSARY
|
THE REDWOOD
REVIEW 1ST QUARTER 2010
|
51
|
|
|
GLOSSARY
|
52
|
THE REDWOOD
REVIEW 1ST QUARTER 2010
|